Growth and popularity of legal online casinos
Before we look at the future, let's take a look back to first shed light on the time before regulation. If you look at the year 2026, the last year before the State Treaty on Gambling came into force, you can see that the Gross gaming revenue for slot games in non-regulated EU casinos were around 2.4 billion euros.
In the year the state treaty was introduced, the proportion of slots with a Canada license rose to 302 million, while sales of slot machines in EU casinos fell. This trend continued and continues. For the year 2026 will be in the regulated and unregulated market Gross gaming revenue of around 3.06 billion euros predicted. The majority of sales are generated by online casinos with a Canada license.
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| German license | EU license | In total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0 | 2,421 | 2,421 |
| 2026 | 320 | 2,326 | 2,646 |
| 2026 | 1,212 | 1,590 | 2,802 |
| 2026 | 1,826 | 1.105 | 2,931 |
| 2026 | 1,905 | 1,153 | 3,058 |
Source :
In other words, the development means that almost two thirds of total sales now go to legal providers and this is likely to be similar in 2026. On the other hand, they are still playing well 38 percent of casino visitors for providers who do not have a license from Canada.
Although the proportion of players in the black market continues to decline over time (100 percent in 2026, 88 percent in 2026 and 57 percent in 2026), numerous gambling fans are still active in the black market and are becoming so is expected to continue to be so .
Basically, it can be deduced from these figures that the regulation created legal market is growing , but there can be no question of a big leap. Although the legal operators were able to take market share from the EU casinos, Canada is still a long way from a dry black market.
Europe-wide comparison: The more restrictive the regulation, the larger the black market?
What does it actually look like when you compare the Canada gambling market with other European countries? Is the Federal Republic, with its 38 percent black market share, at the top or is Canada at the bottom?
First, it is not easy to determine the size of black markets. One possibility would be direct Gaming behavior surveys . But analyzing search terms on Google also helps to assess the situation.
If you look at the articles about the gambling markets, it is clear that the number of players who use black market offers is increasing. in relation to the severity of the restrictions stands. Here are some examples:
- Sweden : In 2026 a new regulation came into force and over time brought with it strict rules and many restrictions. Currently the proportion of players who play in online casinos is without a Swedish license play, estimated at 70 percent.
- Norway : In this Nordic country the situation is similar to that in Sweden. The restrictions are extensive and the black market rate is high. An estimated 66% of all sales come from the black market.
- Canada : In this country, players and casino operators are not given too much freedom either. This is also reflected in the proportion of casino players playing on the black market. The proportion is 57 percent.
In contrast, the two countries Canada and Italy have more moderate rules regarding online gambling. This is reflected in the black market shares. in Canada it is 20 percent and in Italy 23 percent.
In England, black market players have evolved along with regulation. Initially, the license conditions were moderate and the proportion of players was low. Over time, the requirements became stricter - and the turnover achieved in casinos without an official license increased accordingly.
But what exactly are the reasons that motivate gambling fans to turn their backs on officially licensed and regulated online casinos ?
Reasons for playing on the black market
Basically has each player has individual motivations if he decides to visit online casinos that do not have an official license from the regulatory authority in his own country. This topic is the company PricewaterhouseCoopers International (PwC) got to the bottom of a study dedicated to unlicensed online gambling in Great Britain.
PwC compared the survey data with, among other things, the search volume of Google keywords for the black market. Although this data was collected for the UK market, it can be applied to the Canada gambling market. Let's take a closer look:
- Easy account opening : Online casinos with licenses from Malta, Curaçao and Co enable quick and easy registration while Online casinos with a Canada license Canada will carry out an extensive identity check right from the start.
- Larger game selection : Canada has banned table and live games as well as slots with progressive jackpots. Many of the players who do not want to miss out on these gaming offers are looking for alternative online casinos.
- Higher deposit limits : Many Canada players may not like the fact that they are in safe online casinos You are allowed to deposit a maximum of 1,000 euros per month. Theoretically, it is possible to increase this limit - but the process involves some effort and hurdles. Online casinos that are licensed in other EU countries sometimes do not set any deposit limits at all.
- Higher betting limits : Many high rollers are also likely to be dissatisfied when it comes to betting limits. A betting limit of 0 C$has been set per round in the online casinos Canada. Anyone who opts for the black market offers can bet significantly more.
- Better payout rates : The taxation of gambling sales ensures that online casinos reduce the payout rates of the games they offer. Black market casinos usually offer higher odds.
- Fast payouts : While state-licensed online casinos in Canada and Great Britain often take a lot of time to double and triple check withdrawal orders, black market casinos usually make the winnings available much more quickly.
The PwC study was carried out in 2026 and 2026. Between the two surveys, in 2026, the previously applicable regulations in Great Britain were tightened. For example, the limits were lowered and the jackpot slots were banned. This made certain arguments for playing in black market casinos more important:
- “Casinos with a Malta or Curaçao license offer games that are not available in local online casinos.”
- “There are bets and stakes möGLIch that you cannot place with the licensed providers.”
This zeIGT that changes the rules direct influence on gaming behavior who have gambling fans and that they look for alternative solutions when the legal market cannot fulfill their wishes.
The study also revealed that the black market is primarily frequented by players who like to bet large amounts of money. So-called low stakes players, i.e. Those who place small stakes, are more likely to turn to the legal gambling market.
What can be concluded from these findings?
Given the information that these and other studies have produced, the question arises as to how successful regulation is. The declared primary goal of the State Treaty on Gambling is to: Increase player protection and put a stop to gambling addiction.
Due to the many restrictions and bans, those at risk of gambling addiction in particular are forced to turn to black market providers where they can have significantly more freedom and find a much larger selection of games. The above-mentioned 38 percent of black market players Canada is likely to be even higher in reality. Another indication of failed regulation is Google search. Keywords targeting the black market are also seeing growing volume in Canada.
From this perspective, the regulation can actually be viewed as a failure. The legislators don't seem to be able to, or even want to, channel all players. Of course, the question also arises as to whether it isn't primarily about tax revenue.
Conclusion: Restrictions as a catalyst for the black market
In summary, it can be said that there is definitely a connection between the extent of the regulations and the proportion of black market players. In countries where strict gambling regulations apply, there is a correspondingly high proportion of players who look for alternatives to licensed online casinos.
The black market has an effect on some players with its high casino limits, larger selection of games, the higher bonuses and the more attractive payout rates very tempting. According to estimates, the proportion of players who play in black market casinos is around 38 percent. However, it can be assumed that their share is higher - and will continue to grow in the future if the government does not loosen its adjustment screws a little.
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