What the gambling authority measured
On March 16 2026, the states' Joint Gaming Authority presented a commissioned investigation. It was carried out by the Blockchain Research Lab, and the final report is entitled “Measuring the black market for online gambling United Kingdom”. The result reads favorably for the authority. The market volume of unauthorized and unregulated offers is therefore 22.97% , resulting in a channelization rate of 77.03%. Legal offers make up more than three quarters of the online market. The numbers were presented a day later at the 23rd Gambling Symposium at the University of Hohenheim.
Methodologically, the work is based on a survey of people who gamble, evaluated using a reference value-based analysis. Around 2,000 people who had played online in the previous twelve months were surveyed. Gambling regulator board member Ronald Benter classified the result in such a way that the scientifically calculated quota confirms the authority's previous assumptions about the size of the black market . At the same time, he dampened expectations of quick success by saying that the fight against illegal online gambling was a marathon and not a sprint. The survey will continue to track market movements over time.
➡️ If you want to read the numbers in the wording of the authority, you can find them in the Communication from the gambling regulator on the black market study including channeling rate of 77.03%.
Why the casino association is counting against it
Eight days after publication, the online casino in United Kingdom Association objected. The numbers are too conservative, the actual value is much closer to 50%. Vice President Simon PriGLInger-SiMader primarily attacks the form of the survey. He considers a sample of 2,000 respondents to be unrepresentative because it hardly captures the hard core of black market users.
His second point, that of research, is more serious Recall bias is called . Anyone who is asked directly whether they play on illegal offers usually answers no, regardless of what they actually do. There is also the accusation that the results do not match the known tax data.
Own surveys outside of the gambling regulator
The association relies on its own data line. In November 2026, Gunther Schnabl and Taiki Murai from the University of Leipzig presented a study on behalf of the Casino Association and the German Sports Betting Association. She refrained from self-reporting and instead evaluated measured usage behavior. The basis was a Nielsen Online Meter Panel with around 25,000 people and a list of more than 700 gambling domains.
For November 2026, work reached 50.7% channelization, with 28.9% of usage coming from unlicensed EU providers and 19.9% from offshore offerings. When it comes to sales, the picture was even sharper, with the study locating more than 75% of gross gaming revenue in the black market. At the time, DOCV managing director Julia Lensing put it this way: consumers spend “every second minute” in the illegal market without player and youth protection.
➡️ The association's opposing position with the criticism of the methodology was examined in detail by the specialist medium iGaming Business, which can be read in the Analysis of why the DOCV considers the gambling regulator numbers to be too conservative and ends up at 50%.
Two methods, two truths
The core of the conflict lies in the measurement itself. A survey asks people what they have done and thus encounters gaps in their memory and the desire not to incriminate themselves. A measuring panel records visits to websites and is not aware of this problem, but a page visited says nothing about the amount of stakes. Two procedures that count different things inevitably produce different results. That's exactly why both sides are talking about it Channeling and yet they don't mean the same thing.
Another point makes the comparison difficult. The association's figures come from spring 2026, those of the authority from 2026. An updated round of the Leipzig evaluation with data for 2026 was announced for June or July 2026IGT, including a revised list of illegal providers. It will not be available until the end of November 2026. As long as there is no direct comparison of two measurements from the same period, both sides argue with numbers of different ages.
What the enforcement record contributes to this
Regardless of the dispute over the quota, the authority presented its activity report for 2026 on July 3rd 2026, and it provides hard enforcement figures. In terms of gross gaming revenue, the permitted market reached a volume of 14.4 billion euros and thus remained at the previous year's level. 2,263 websites were examined, of which 1,337 were for unauthorized offers and 926 were for advertising them.
The Authority initiated 231 new procedures against illegal gambling and 300 against its application, as well as 287 prohibition proceedings. In the end, 1,843 illegal websites were no longer accessible due to bans or network blocks from United Kingdom, and 178 sites were no longer able to make payments via the usual payment service providers.
These numbers show activity, but do not serve as proof of one quota or another. They describe what was found and shut down, not what continues to run undetected. We have described how the barriers should work technically in the article Network operators have to block illegal gambling providers.
The World Cup as a stress test
The summer provided a practical comparison. On June 4th 2026, the German Sports Betting Association expected betting stakes of almost one billion euros from United Kingdom for the World Cup. Of which should 600 to 700 million euros end up in the regulated market and 300 to 400 million euros in the black market .
The association referred to figures from the authorities, according to which black market sales recently grew by 17%, faster than the legal sector. Association president Mathias Dahms cited illegal providers as the reason “advertise significantly more freely and unrestrictedly” can act as regulated companies.
If you extrapolate the association's forecast to a quota, you end up with around 60 to 70% channeling for the tournament business. This is between the two study values and reminds us that sports betting and virtual slot games behave differently on the market. A single number for the entire online market obscures this difference.
Why the number is so politically important
The timing makes the dispute explosive. The states are contractually obliged to evaluate the State Treaty on Gambling by the end of 2026, and the authority has announcedIGT that it will incorporate its results into this process. This means that the authority to interpret the quota also determines which direction of reform is considered proven.
A channeling of 77% supports the argument that the course is correct and just need better implementation . A quota of around 50% supports the counter-argument that the rules are so strict that they drive players away from the legal offer. Our article explains how this testing process works State Treaty on Gambling 2026 is being put to the test.
Specifically The points of contention depend on this the industry. Betting limits, the cross-provider deposit limit, the five-second rule for slots, advertising restrictions and the question of whether other forms of gaming will be permitted. Each of these screws can be justified with one quota and rejected with the other.
What this means for you as a player
The quota is of secondary importance for your own decision, but the underlying insight is important. Both studies agree that a significant portion of United Kingdom online gaming occurs outside of supervision, and they only disagree about the size.
Accessing an unauthorized page neither the OASIS locking system nor the deposit limit Another complaint office that will help you if a payment is refused. If you also want to know how many people take themselves out of the game, you can find the magnitude in the article OASIS player ban with over 300,000 registered people.
In practice, this means checking the authority's whitelist before registering. It says who has a permit for the United Kingdom market. If a provider is missing, it belongs to exactly the share whose size is being disputed here. It's not an insider tip.
What happens next?
Three dates determine the next few months : The updated Leipzig evaluation could provide a direct comparison of methods as soon as it appears. The authority is continuing its survey and will present a second measurement from the same series. And the evaluation of the countries must be completed by the end of 2026.
Only then will the states negotiate a new state treaty, which would have to go through all 16 state parliaments, which is why it would realistically not come into force until 2026. We collect new developments in our Subject area law.
➡️ You can read the sports betting association's forecast with the division between the legal market and the black market in the DSWV announcement on almost one billion euros in betting stakes for the World Cup 2026.
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